Survey Results

Newcomb's problem: one box or two boxes?

Population

AOS

Region

for

Exclude answers beyond respondent's first 50

Include skip/insufficiently familiar answers

1071 respondents

What the percentages mean: "Accept or lean toward P: 50% (40%)" means that 50% of respondents endorsed this answer inclusively (including multiple-answer endorsements) and 40% endorsed this answer exclusively (excluding multiple-answer endorsements).

These results should not be used for comparison to 2009 results due to different populations and parameters. For meaningful longitudinal comparisons, see the longitudinal analysis section.

Collapse accept and lean towards

Accept or lean towards:
one box

31.19% (30.72%)

Reject or lean against:
one box

0.00% (0.00%)

Accept or lean towards:
two boxes

39.03% (38.47%)

Reject or lean against:
two boxes

0.00% (0.00%)

Accept a combination of views

0.65%

Accept an alternative view

1.21%

The question is too unclear to answer

3.08%

There is no fact of the matter

2.80%

Agnostic/undecided

22.41%

Other

0.65%

N = 1071, excluding skipped & insufficiently familiar (714 respondents)

Longitudinal comparison to 2009 survey

Comparison type

AOS

Geographic filters do not apply to this section.

Option

2009

2020

Change

Swing

Option

Accept or lean towards: one box

21.27%

20.06%

1.21

-0.51

2009	21.27%
2020	20.06%
Change	1.21
Swing	-0.51

Accept or lean towards: two boxes

31.36%

31.17%

0.19

0.51

2009	31.36%
2020	31.17%
Change	0.19
Swing	0.51

Accept a combination of views

0.97%

0.31%

0.66

2009	0.97%
2020	0.31%
Change	0.66

Accept an alternative view

0.64%

0.77%

0.13

2009	0.64%
2020	0.77%
Change	0.13

The question is too unclear to answer

2.04%

2.01%

0.03

2009	2.04%
2020	2.01%
Change	0.03

There is no fact of the matter

1.61%

1.7%

0.09

2009	1.61%
2020	1.7%
Change	0.09

Insufficiently familiar with the issue

23.52%

25.62%

2.10

2009	23.52%
2020	25.62%
Change	2.10

Agnostic/undecided

13.32%

16.36%

3.04

2009	13.32%
2020	16.36%
Change	3.04

Skipped

4.73%

1.85%

2.88

2009	4.73%
2020	1.85%
Change	2.88

Other

0.54%

0.15%

0.39

2009	0.54%
2020	0.15%
Change	0.39

N (2020) = 648
N (2009) = 931

Weighted values

Option	2009	2020	Change
One box	29.44	29.27	0.17
Two boxes	40.16	38.72	1.44

Strongest correlations with main questions (target population)

r: 0.15	Response to external-world skepticism: pragmatic
Newcomb's problem: one box	Accept	Reject
Accept	51	139
Reject	60	286

n: 536

p: 0.0004

r: 0.13	Normative ethics: virtue ethics
Newcomb's problem: one box	Accept	Reject
Accept	112	174
Reject	182	391

n: 859

p < 0.0001

r: 0.13	Hume: skeptic
Newcomb's problem: one box	Accept	Reject
Accept	72	99
Reject	99	214

n: 484

p: 0.0041

r: 0.12	Eating animals and animal products: omnivorism (yes and yes)
Newcomb's problem: one box	Accept	Reject
Accept	168	143
Reject	284	325

n: 920

p < 0.0001

r: 0.11	Philosophical knowledge: none
Newcomb's problem: one box	Accept	Reject
Accept	12	204
Reject	6	401

n: 623

p: 0.0042

r: 0.1	Aim of philosophy: wisdom
Newcomb's problem: one box	Accept	Reject
Accept	96	191
Reject	159	399

n: 845

p: 0.0038

r: 0.1	Political philosophy: communitarianism
Newcomb's problem: one box	Accept	Reject
Accept	84	173
Reject	114	374

n: 745

p: 0.0093

r: 0.09	Analysis of knowledge: justified true belief
Newcomb's problem: one box	Accept	Reject
Accept	49	170
Reject	70	313

n: 602

p: 0.0272

r: 0.09	Truth: epistemic
Newcomb's problem: one box	Accept	Reject
Accept	26	273
Reject	42	523

n: 864

p: 0.0099

r: 0.09	Justification: reliabilism
Newcomb's problem: one box	Accept	Reject
Accept	83	99
Reject	130	228

n: 540

p: 0.0432

r: -0.09	A priori knowledge: yes
Newcomb's problem: one box	Accept	Reject
Accept	248	68
Reject	510	106

n: 932

p: 0.0087

r: 0.09	Gender: social
Newcomb's problem: one box	Accept	Reject
Accept	216	63
Reject	369	165

n: 813

p: 0.0148

r: -0.08	Philosophical methods: intuition-based philosophy
Newcomb's problem: one box	Accept	Reject
Accept	177	141
Reject	377	230

n: 925

p: 0.0111

r: 0.08	Philosophical methods: experimental philosophy
Newcomb's problem: one box	Accept	Reject
Accept	124	194
Reject	200	407

n: 925

p: 0.0132

r: 0.08	Aim of philosophy: goodness/justice
Newcomb's problem: one box	Accept	Reject
Accept	73	212
Reject	121	431

n: 837

p: 0.0189

r: 0.08	God: theism
Newcomb's problem: one box	Accept	Reject
Accept	54	260
Reject	100	522

n: 936

p: 0.0133

r: 0.08	Aim of philosophy: understanding
Newcomb's problem: one box	Accept	Reject
Accept	198	100
Reject	348	229

n: 875

p: 0.018

r: -0.08	Eating animals and animal products: veganism (no and no)
Newcomb's problem: one box	Accept	Reject
Accept	64	247
Reject	148	462

n: 921

p: 0.0186

r: 0.08	Moral motivation: internalism
Newcomb's problem: one box	Accept	Reject
Accept	117	139
Reject	220	303

n: 779

p: 0.0308

r: -0.07	Zombies: metaphysically possible
Newcomb's problem: one box	Accept	Reject
Accept	82	210
Reject	167	389

n: 848

p: 0.0309

r: -0.07	Science: scientific realism
Newcomb's problem: one box	Accept	Reject
Accept	243	55
Reject	483	108

n: 889

p: 0.0375

r: 0.07	External world: skepticism
Newcomb's problem: one box	Accept	Reject
Accept	20	295
Reject	27	596

n: 938

p: 0.0344

Strongest correlations with demographic questions (target population)

r: -0.13	AOS: Decision Theory
Newcomb's problem: one box	Yes	No
Accept	10	318
Reject	38	598

n: 964

p < 0.0001

r: 0.09	Philosopher: Quine
Newcomb's problem: one box	Yes	No
Accept	33	202
Reject	39	417

n: 691

p: 0.0135

r: -0.09	Region of PhD: Europe
Newcomb's problem: one box	Yes	No
Accept	12	229
Reject	52	426

n: 719

p: 0.0136

r: 0.08	Philosopher: Marx
Newcomb's problem: one box	Yes	No
Accept	8	227
Reject	6	450

n: 691

p: 0.0278

r: 0.06	Region of affiliation: Latin America
Newcomb's problem: one box	Yes	No
Accept	6	326
Reject	2	645

n: 979

p: 0.0495