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Survey Results
Newcomb's problem: two boxes or one box?
1071 respondents
Accept or lean towards:
one box
one box
31.19% (30.72%)
Reject or lean against:
one box
one box
0.00% (0.00%)
Accept or lean towards:
two boxes
two boxes
39.03% (38.47%)
Reject or lean against:
two boxes
two boxes
0.00% (0.00%)
Accept a combination of views
0.65%
Accept an alternative view
1.21%
The question is too unclear to answer
3.08%
There is no fact of the matter
2.80%
Agnostic/undecided
22.41%
Other
0.65%
Longitudinal comparison to 2009 survey
Geographic filters do not apply to this section.
Option | 2009 | 2020 | Change | Swing | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Option | |||||||||||||
Accept or lean towards: one box | 21.27% | 20.06% | 1.21 | -0.51 |
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Accept or lean towards: two boxes | 31.36% | 31.17% | 0.19 | 0.51 |
| ||||||||
Accept a combination of views | 0.97% | 0.31% | 0.66 |
| |||||||||
Accept an alternative view | 0.64% | 0.77% | 0.13 |
| |||||||||
The question is too unclear to answer | 2.04% | 2.01% | 0.03 |
| |||||||||
There is no fact of the matter | 1.61% | 1.7% | 0.09 |
| |||||||||
Insufficiently familiar with the issue | 23.52% | 25.62% | 2.10 |
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Agnostic/undecided | 13.32% | 16.36% | 3.04 |
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Skipped | 4.73% | 1.85% | 2.88 |
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Other | 0.54% | 0.15% | 0.39 |
|
N (2009) = 931
Weighted values
Option | 2009 | 2020 | Change |
---|---|---|---|
One box | 29.44 | 29.27 | 0.17 |
Two boxes | 40.16 | 38.72 | 1.44 |
Strongest correlations with main questions (target population)
r: 0.15
| ||
---|---|---|
Newcomb's problem: one box | Accept | Reject |
Accept | 51 | 139 |
Reject | 60 | 286 |
n: 536
p: 0.0004
r: 0.13
| ||
---|---|---|
Newcomb's problem: one box | Accept | Reject |
Accept | 112 | 174 |
Reject | 182 | 391 |
n: 859
p < 0.0001
r: 0.13
| ||
---|---|---|
Newcomb's problem: one box | Accept | Reject |
Accept | 72 | 99 |
Reject | 99 | 214 |
n: 484
p: 0.0041
r: 0.12
| ||
---|---|---|
Newcomb's problem: one box | Accept | Reject |
Accept | 168 | 143 |
Reject | 284 | 325 |
n: 920
p < 0.0001
r: 0.11
| ||
---|---|---|
Newcomb's problem: one box | Accept | Reject |
Accept | 12 | 204 |
Reject | 6 | 401 |
n: 623
p: 0.0042
r: 0.1
| ||
---|---|---|
Newcomb's problem: one box | Accept | Reject |
Accept | 96 | 191 |
Reject | 159 | 399 |
n: 845
p: 0.0038
r: 0.1
| ||
---|---|---|
Newcomb's problem: one box | Accept | Reject |
Accept | 84 | 173 |
Reject | 114 | 374 |
n: 745
p: 0.0093
r: 0.09
| ||
---|---|---|
Newcomb's problem: one box | Accept | Reject |
Accept | 49 | 170 |
Reject | 70 | 313 |
n: 602
p: 0.0272
r: 0.09
| ||
---|---|---|
Newcomb's problem: one box | Accept | Reject |
Accept | 26 | 273 |
Reject | 42 | 523 |
n: 864
p: 0.0099
r: 0.09
| ||
---|---|---|
Newcomb's problem: one box | Accept | Reject |
Accept | 83 | 99 |
Reject | 130 | 228 |
n: 540
p: 0.0432
r: -0.09
| ||
---|---|---|
Newcomb's problem: one box | Accept | Reject |
Accept | 248 | 68 |
Reject | 510 | 106 |
n: 932
p: 0.0087
r: 0.09
| ||
---|---|---|
Newcomb's problem: one box | Accept | Reject |
Accept | 216 | 63 |
Reject | 369 | 165 |
n: 813
p: 0.0148
r: -0.08
| ||
---|---|---|
Newcomb's problem: one box | Accept | Reject |
Accept | 177 | 141 |
Reject | 377 | 230 |
n: 925
p: 0.0111
r: 0.08
| ||
---|---|---|
Newcomb's problem: one box | Accept | Reject |
Accept | 124 | 194 |
Reject | 200 | 407 |
n: 925
p: 0.0132
r: 0.08
| ||
---|---|---|
Newcomb's problem: one box | Accept | Reject |
Accept | 73 | 212 |
Reject | 121 | 431 |
n: 837
p: 0.0189
r: 0.08
| ||
---|---|---|
Newcomb's problem: one box | Accept | Reject |
Accept | 54 | 260 |
Reject | 100 | 522 |
n: 936
p: 0.0133
r: 0.08
| ||
---|---|---|
Newcomb's problem: one box | Accept | Reject |
Accept | 198 | 100 |
Reject | 348 | 229 |
n: 875
p: 0.018
r: -0.08
| ||
---|---|---|
Newcomb's problem: one box | Accept | Reject |
Accept | 64 | 247 |
Reject | 148 | 462 |
n: 921
p: 0.0186
r: 0.08
| ||
---|---|---|
Newcomb's problem: one box | Accept | Reject |
Accept | 117 | 139 |
Reject | 220 | 303 |
n: 779
p: 0.0308
r: -0.07
| ||
---|---|---|
Newcomb's problem: one box | Accept | Reject |
Accept | 82 | 210 |
Reject | 167 | 389 |
n: 848
p: 0.0309
r: -0.07
| ||
---|---|---|
Newcomb's problem: one box | Accept | Reject |
Accept | 243 | 55 |
Reject | 483 | 108 |
n: 889
p: 0.0375
r: 0.07
| ||
---|---|---|
Newcomb's problem: one box | Accept | Reject |
Accept | 20 | 295 |
Reject | 27 | 596 |
n: 938
p: 0.0344
Strongest correlations with demographic questions (target population)
r: -0.13
| ||
---|---|---|
Newcomb's problem: one box | Yes | No |
Accept | 10 | 318 |
Reject | 38 | 598 |
n: 964
p < 0.0001
r: 0.09
| ||
---|---|---|
Newcomb's problem: one box | Yes | No |
Accept | 33 | 202 |
Reject | 39 | 417 |
n: 691
p: 0.0135
r: -0.09
| ||
---|---|---|
Newcomb's problem: one box | Yes | No |
Accept | 12 | 229 |
Reject | 52 | 426 |
n: 719
p: 0.0136
r: 0.08
| ||
---|---|---|
Newcomb's problem: one box | Yes | No |
Accept | 8 | 227 |
Reject | 6 | 450 |
n: 691
p: 0.0278
r: 0.06
| ||
---|---|---|
Newcomb's problem: one box | Yes | No |
Accept | 6 | 326 |
Reject | 2 | 645 |
n: 979
p: 0.0495